Category: Uncategorized

Initial vs. Continuing Unemployment Claims: A Distinction with the Very Big Difference

The employment news is bad enough without reporters and pundits exaggerating the grim trends. Almost 39 million initial claims for unemployment have been filed since mid-March when the COVID-19 pandemic really started taking hold of the economy. It is probably fair to conclude that “Nearly 39 million have lost jobs in US since virus took …

Saving for a Rainy Day – or a Recession – Takes Energy

Key takeaway: Energy-sector states tend to save more for leaner times. This prudence is admirable given the historical volatility of energy prices – and the public revenues that depend on them. Two recent articles caught my attention because they had similar-looking lists of U.S. states: First, an April 17 article in the Financial Times regarding …

The Coronavirus, the End of the Cycle, and U.S. Commercial Property Markets: Early Thoughts

The coronavirus has seized the global economy. With the number of confirmed cases globally and in the U.S. growing by about one-third per day – that is, doubling every three days – a broad range of economic activity is rapidly shutting down, either by fiat or collapsing consumer demand, dramatically compounding the supply chain disruption …

Looking for Love (and Returns) in All the Wrong Places: Why Property Investors Should Focus More on Job Growth than Consensus Outlooks

Job growth is moderating, which will slow property leasing and reduce investment returns. For investors still in the hunt for new acquisitions, market selection becomes that much more important. In my new analysis, I review the consensus market recommendations from several ULI’s annual Emerging Trends reports over the last decade, as well as both recent …