Clear Thinking for Real Estate Leaders
Remote working is still upending the office property sector. In an article I wrote for Real Estate Issues in 2021, I considered the early evidence that working from home and hybrid work arrangements were likely to be lasting legacies of the pandemic.1 Two years later, the “will they or won’t they return to the office“ …
Of the many changes in America’s labor markets since the pandemic began, perhaps the most surprising has been a decisive shift in the balance of power from employers to workers. Facing historic labor shortages and much choosier workers, employers are boosting wages, improving workplace conditions, and providing more flexible work arrangements to attract the personnel …
Trading off saving lives for preserving jobs A string of media stories last spring offered a glittery comparison of the pandemic’s impact on California and Florida. Officials in red-leaning Florida gloated that their state sustained comparable rates of COVID infection and mortality as in blue California, despite having much more relaxed policies and taking a …
Continue reading “The Pandemic’s Toll in California and Florida Revisited”
America’s labor markets have been transforming in myriad ways since the onset of the pandemic. Just about every important labor metric is out of whack: job quits, new hires, and job openings are all at record levels, while the number of jobless workers available to fill open positions is at historic lows. It all adds …
Continue reading “America’s “Labor Shortage” Is Not What It Seems”
Too often the amusing anecdote or the obvious comparison are more misleading than meaningful Ever since the widespread lockdowns last spring, there’s been pitched political debate over how much government should be doing to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. Last month several media stories comparing the COVID-19 experience in California and Florida seemed …
The coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. originated in the nation’s densely populated, left-leaning urban communities but spread to increasingly less dense suburban and then rural regions, where the politics tend to lean right. My detailed analysis of COVID data provides clear evidence of the striking shift in the infection’s political colors–and demonstrates that the migration …
Continue reading “Three Startling Findings from My Deep Dive into COVID’s Spread Across America”
The pandemic’s tragic path from cities to farms—and from blue America to red COVID-19 is sweeping widely through the country. Again. But each wave is hitting different political groups as it infects new areas. In the first part of my analysis of America’s growing political divide, I showed how voters are increasingly polarized by where …
Continue reading “Here, then There, then COVID’s Everywhere:”
Our economy is on the mend. So far, we’ve recovered more than half the jobs, three-fourths of the economic output (GDP), and seven-eighths of personal income (net of government support) that we had lost in the initial downturn. And there’s been plenty of welcome economic news in the past few weeks. Both retail sales and …
Continue reading “The Jobs Market Is Shouting That We Need A Second Stimulus Package”
The first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth far exceeded the reigning record for economic growth in a quarter—despite still onerous constraints on economic activities. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated quarterly real growth of 7.4% over the second quarter, or 33.1% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, topping even bullish consensus forecasts. Meanwhile the …
Retail sales climbed back to record levels in June and continued to grow in July and August—despite painful levels of unemployment and income loss. But the good times will not last much longer. The massive government income support programs that funded consumer spending are ending, while shoppers will need to resume normal household necessities like …
Continue reading “The Deceptive Recovery in Retail Sales Can’t Last”
