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“Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2022” Released

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I’m proud to have served as the lead writer for “Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2022” jointly released last week by the Urban Land Institute and PwC. Key themes in this year’s report: “Surprising Resilience, Booming Economy, Worrying Risks.” Following tradition, the report lays out ten top trends of relevance to the property sector including the impacts of working from home, growing …

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Category: Demographics, Economy, Property Investment, Real Estate Research, Retail, Uncategorized

The High Price of Opportunity Zones

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A rigorous new study has concluded that Opportunity Zones are not fulfilling their promise, inflating residential prices without expanding investment in the designated areas. By using an enormous database of residential sales transactions the real estate data management and analytics company Cherre Inc, along with outside academics, has undertaken the most comprehensive analysis yet of …

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Category: Uncategorized

More Retail Pain Before Real Gains

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The coronavirus still controls the economy. As COVID-19 cases began surging again in mid-September, the recovery inevitably began to slow. I made two main economic predictions this fall. First, that labor market conditions would deteriorate, with actual job losses likely. Second, that holiday retail sales would be underwhelming, particularly in malls and community shopping centers. …

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Category: Economy, Real Estate Research, Retail, Uncategorized

Three Startling Findings from My Deep Dive into COVID’s Spread Across America

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The coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. originated in the nation’s densely populated, left-leaning urban communities but spread to increasingly less dense suburban and then rural regions, where the politics tend to lean right. My detailed analysis of COVID data provides clear evidence of the striking shift in the infection’s political colors–and demonstrates that the migration …

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Category: COVID-19, Demographics, Uncategorized

Here, then There, then COVID’s Everywhere:

Photo by Tiffany Tertipes on Unsplash

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The pandemic’s tragic path from cities to farms—and from blue America to red COVID-19 is sweeping widely through the country. Again. But each wave is hitting different political groups as it infects new areas. In the first part of my analysis of America’s growing political divide, I showed how voters are increasingly polarized by where …

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Category: COVID-19, Demographics, Politics, Uncategorized

The Jobs Market Is Shouting That We Need A Second Stimulus Package

different dollar bills on marble surface

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Our economy is on the mend. So far, we’ve recovered more than half the jobs, three-fourths of the economic output (GDP), and seven-eighths of personal income (net of government support) that we had lost in the initial downturn. And there’s been plenty of welcome economic news in the past few weeks. Both retail sales and …

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Category: COVID-19, Economy, Jobs, Uncategorized

What Does A(nother) COVID Spike Mean for Retail Real Estate?

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Winter is arriving early this year for the economy, no matter what the thermometer reads. With the coronavirus infection spreading wildly throughout the country, people are returning to their home bunkers and economic activity is again slowing—and the retail sector will bear the brunt of the impending damage. You wouldn’t know it from the headline …

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Category: Economy, Real Estate Research, Retail, Uncategorized

Healing but Hurting: Women Faring Worse in an Ailing Labor Market

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Half a year after the U.S. job market began to crater from the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns, the recovery is far from complete. The key takeaways from my deep dive: Despite record monthly job growth this spring and summer, we have recovered only half of the lost jobs lost during the frenetic initial weeks …

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Category: Economy, Jobs, Politics, Uncategorized

July 2020 Retail Sales – Welcome news, but less than it seems

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The Census Bureau reported almost shocking economic news last week: retail sales now exceed pre-pandemic levels. Retail sales including restaurants amounted to a record $536 billion on a seasonally-adjusted basis, up 1.2% over January. This volume is a remarkable achievement, especially considering that unemployment still exceeds 10% – down from its pandemic peak, but still …

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Category: Economy, Real Estate Research, Retail, Uncategorized

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Initial vs. Continuing Unemployment Claims: A Distinction with the Very Big Difference

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The employment news is bad enough without reporters and pundits exaggerating the grim trends. Almost 39 million initial claims for unemployment have been filed since mid-March when the COVID-19 pandemic really started taking hold of the economy. It is probably fair to conclude that “Nearly 39 million have lost jobs in US since virus took …

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Category: COVID-19, Economy, Jobs, Uncategorized

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