Clear Thinking for Real Estate Leaders
A Dynamic Property Sector Faces Painful Adjustments and a Bifurcated Recovery Despite wholly different market dynamics, the office property sector is confronting some challenging adjustments coming out of the pandemic that eerily mirror those buffeting the retail sector. American office workers are preparing to venture out from their home offices and return to their company …
The coronavirus still controls the economy. As COVID-19 cases began surging again in mid-September, the recovery inevitably began to slow. I made two main economic predictions this fall. First, that labor market conditions would deteriorate, with actual job losses likely. Second, that holiday retail sales would be underwhelming, particularly in malls and community shopping centers. …
President-elect Biden’s policies will depart materially from those under the Trump Administration. In my first article on the Biden economic plan, I examined the potential impact of Biden’s expected tax proposals. In this article, I explore the expected spending priorities and regulatory approach, as well as the broader economic climate. Read my analysis on Propmodo.
President-elect Biden’s policies are likely to mark a distinct departure from those under the Trump Administration and, in many cases, won’t be as favorable for the commercial real estate sector. But a full accounting of the expected policies presents a range of plusses and minuses for the industry. In the first of a two-part article, …
Continue reading “What a Biden Tax Plan Might Hold for Commercial Real Estate”
Winter is arriving early this year for the economy, no matter what the thermometer reads. With the coronavirus infection spreading wildly throughout the country, people are returning to their home bunkers and economic activity is again slowing—and the retail sector will bear the brunt of the impending damage. You wouldn’t know it from the headline …
Continue reading “What Does A(nother) COVID Spike Mean for Retail Real Estate?”
U.S. retailers logged another month of record sales in October, but overall retail trends weakened significantly, with spending in physical stores actually declining for the first time since April. And with COVID infections spreading wildly and consumer financial health deteriorating, sales in shopping centers are poised to decline again this autumn and winter, particularly in …
Continue reading “Holiday Spending Gets Rough Start and the Outlook is Weak”
Retail sales climbed back to record levels in June and continued to grow in July and August—despite painful levels of unemployment and income loss. But the good times will not last much longer. The massive government income support programs that funded consumer spending are ending, while shoppers will need to resume normal household necessities like …
Continue reading “The Deceptive Recovery in Retail Sales Can’t Last”
The Census Bureau reported almost shocking economic news last week: retail sales now exceed pre-pandemic levels. Retail sales including restaurants amounted to a record $536 billion on a seasonally-adjusted basis, up 1.2% over January. This volume is a remarkable achievement, especially considering that unemployment still exceeds 10% – down from its pandemic peak, but still …
Continue reading “July 2020 Retail Sales – Welcome news, but less than it seems”
The coronavirus has seized the global economy. With the number of confirmed cases globally and in the U.S. growing by about one-third per day – that is, doubling every three days – a broad range of economic activity is rapidly shutting down, either by fiat or collapsing consumer demand, dramatically compounding the supply chain disruption …
The January jobs report was surprisingly positive, with a significant jump in new hires, a slight bump in hourly wage growth, and continued rise people entering the labor force. Meanwhile, unemployment remains near its lowest level in five decades. These trends are all positive for property markets and the broader economy. Nonetheless, on deeper analysis, …
Continue reading “The January Jobs Report: Lots to Like! But Still . . .”
