Category: Jobs

Don’t Buy the Hype: Four Signs the Recovery Is Less Than It Seems

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Recent positive economic headlines are easily misinterpreted. The record growth we’ve enjoyed follows even greater downturns and leaves us well short of prior levels on most key measures. With the recovery slowing across the board, a full rebound is not yet in sight. The latest government reports have brought a spate of upbeat U.S. economic …

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Category: Economy, Jobs, Retail

Record GDP Growth Masks Core Weakness—and One Surprising Upside (That Just Might Get Us Through The Dark Winter)

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The first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth far exceeded the reigning record for economic growth in a quarter—despite still onerous constraints on economic activities. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated quarterly real growth of 7.4% over the second quarter, or 33.1% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, topping even bullish consensus forecasts. Meanwhile the …

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Category: COVID-19, Economy, Jobs

The Recession Is Over! But Don’t Get Too Excited Just Yet.

Photo by Andre Hunter on Unsplash

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Next Thursday (October 29) the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of economic growth for the third quarter of 2020. Almost certainly it will set records for the greatest absolute and percentage quarterly Gross National Product (“GDP”) gains since the government started calculating national income accounts just after WWII. Time to pop …

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Category: Economy, Jobs

Healing but Hurting: Women Faring Worse in an Ailing Labor Market

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Half a year after the U.S. job market began to crater from the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns, the recovery is far from complete. The key takeaways from my deep dive: Despite record monthly job growth this spring and summer, we have recovered only half of the lost jobs lost during the frenetic initial weeks …

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Category: Economy, Jobs, Politics, Uncategorized

Nine Million New Jobs in a Pandemic: COVID Hasn’t Killed the Resilient U.S. Jobs Machine

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The American economy is incredibly dynamic – even in a soul-crushing pandemic. Lost in the disheartening news about the depressing number of firms going bust and workers losing their jobs is the other side of the ledger: new and existing firms are adding millions of new jobs. I estimate about three for every ten jobs …

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Category: COVID-19, Economy, Jobs

Initial vs. Continuing Unemployment Claims: A Distinction with the Very Big Difference

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The employment news is bad enough without reporters and pundits exaggerating the grim trends. Almost 39 million initial claims for unemployment have been filed since mid-March when the COVID-19 pandemic really started taking hold of the economy. It is probably fair to conclude that “Nearly 39 million have lost jobs in US since virus took …

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Category: COVID-19, Economy, Jobs, Uncategorized

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