Clear Thinking for Real Estate Leaders
Half a year after the U.S. job market began to crater from the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns, the recovery is far from complete. The key takeaways from my deep dive: Despite record monthly job growth this spring and summer, we have recovered only half of the lost jobs lost during the frenetic initial weeks …
Continue reading “Healing but Hurting: Women Faring Worse in an Ailing Labor Market”
Retail sales climbed back to record levels in June and continued to grow in July and August—despite painful levels of unemployment and income loss. But the good times will not last much longer. The massive government income support programs that funded consumer spending are ending, while shoppers will need to resume normal household necessities like …
Continue reading “The Deceptive Recovery in Retail Sales Can’t Last”
The American economy is incredibly dynamic – even in a soul-crushing pandemic. Lost in the disheartening news about the depressing number of firms going bust and workers losing their jobs is the other side of the ledger: new and existing firms are adding millions of new jobs. I estimate about three for every ten jobs …
The Census Bureau reported almost shocking economic news last week: retail sales now exceed pre-pandemic levels. Retail sales including restaurants amounted to a record $536 billion on a seasonally-adjusted basis, up 1.2% over January. This volume is a remarkable achievement, especially considering that unemployment still exceeds 10% – down from its pandemic peak, but still …
Continue reading “July 2020 Retail Sales – Welcome news, but less than it seems”
The preliminary estimate of second-quarter headline GDP released today was ugly if not unexpected: the 9.5% plunge over the prior quarter translates to a 32.9% annualized decline, more than three times the greatest prior quarterly fall since the government started tracking GDP in 1947. The modicum of good news is that economic output apparently bottomed …
The employment news is bad enough without reporters and pundits exaggerating the grim trends. Almost 39 million initial claims for unemployment have been filed since mid-March when the COVID-19 pandemic really started taking hold of the economy. It is probably fair to conclude that “Nearly 39 million have lost jobs in US since virus took …
The coronavirus has seized the global economy. With the number of confirmed cases globally and in the U.S. growing by about one-third per day – that is, doubling every three days – a broad range of economic activity is rapidly shutting down, either by fiat or collapsing consumer demand, dramatically compounding the supply chain disruption …
The January jobs report was surprisingly positive, with a significant jump in new hires, a slight bump in hourly wage growth, and continued rise people entering the labor force. Meanwhile, unemployment remains near its lowest level in five decades. These trends are all positive for property markets and the broader economy. Nonetheless, on deeper analysis, …
Continue reading “The January Jobs Report: Lots to Like! But Still . . .”
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019 according to the first official estimate, broadly in line with consensus expectations (chart below on left). If that figure holds through subsequent estimates – and some adjustments are typical – GDP growth for all of 2019 would …
Continue reading “4Q19 US GDP – Not Quite as Steady as it Appears”
Economists are infamously bad at predicting recessions. Aside from all the technical challenges, ultimately it’s just so hard to imagine conditions different than those we are living. Perhaps it should not be so surprising, then, that economists routinely ignore or explain away the closest thing we have to a sure sign. The yield curve’s inversion …
Continue reading “Mind the Gap: The Steepening Yield Curve Should Not Inspire Confidence”
