Clear Thinking for Real Estate Leaders
When the U.S. economy first went into a tailspin in March as the country entered lockdown, initially there was hope for a “V”-shaped recovery – that the economy would come back as quickly as it had declined – once businesses could safely reopen and people could resume their everyday routines. Indeed, that was the premise …
Continue reading “A Most Unusual Recession – A Mostly Typical (If Protracted) Recovery”
The coronavirus still controls the economy. As COVID-19 cases began surging again in mid-September, the recovery inevitably began to slow. I made two main economic predictions this fall. First, that labor market conditions would deteriorate, with actual job losses likely. Second, that holiday retail sales would be underwhelming, particularly in malls and community shopping centers. …
President-elect Biden’s policies will depart materially from those under the Trump Administration. In my first article on the Biden economic plan, I examined the potential impact of Biden’s expected tax proposals. In this article, I explore the expected spending priorities and regulatory approach, as well as the broader economic climate. Read my analysis on Propmodo.
President-elect Biden’s policies are likely to mark a distinct departure from those under the Trump Administration and, in many cases, won’t be as favorable for the commercial real estate sector. But a full accounting of the expected policies presents a range of plusses and minuses for the industry. In the first of a two-part article, …
Continue reading “What a Biden Tax Plan Might Hold for Commercial Real Estate”
Our economy is on the mend. So far, we’ve recovered more than half the jobs, three-fourths of the economic output (GDP), and seven-eighths of personal income (net of government support) that we had lost in the initial downturn. And there’s been plenty of welcome economic news in the past few weeks. Both retail sales and …
Continue reading “The Jobs Market Is Shouting That We Need A Second Stimulus Package”
Recent positive economic headlines are easily misinterpreted. The record growth we’ve enjoyed follows even greater downturns and leaves us well short of prior levels on most key measures. With the recovery slowing across the board, a full rebound is not yet in sight. The latest government reports have brought a spate of upbeat U.S. economic …
Continue reading “Don’t Buy the Hype: Four Signs the Recovery Is Less Than It Seems”
Winter is arriving early this year for the economy, no matter what the thermometer reads. With the coronavirus infection spreading wildly throughout the country, people are returning to their home bunkers and economic activity is again slowing—and the retail sector will bear the brunt of the impending damage. You wouldn’t know it from the headline …
Continue reading “What Does A(nother) COVID Spike Mean for Retail Real Estate?”
U.S. retailers logged another month of record sales in October, but overall retail trends weakened significantly, with spending in physical stores actually declining for the first time since April. And with COVID infections spreading wildly and consumer financial health deteriorating, sales in shopping centers are poised to decline again this autumn and winter, particularly in …
Continue reading “Holiday Spending Gets Rough Start and the Outlook is Weak”
The first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth far exceeded the reigning record for economic growth in a quarter—despite still onerous constraints on economic activities. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated quarterly real growth of 7.4% over the second quarter, or 33.1% on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, topping even bullish consensus forecasts. Meanwhile the …
Next Thursday (October 29) the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of economic growth for the third quarter of 2020. Almost certainly it will set records for the greatest absolute and percentage quarterly Gross National Product (“GDP”) gains since the government started calculating national income accounts just after WWII. Time to pop …
Continue reading “The Recession Is Over! But Don’t Get Too Excited Just Yet.”
