Category: COVID-19

Nine Million New Jobs in a Pandemic: COVID Hasn’t Killed the Resilient U.S. Jobs Machine

The American economy is incredibly dynamic – even in a soul-crushing pandemic. Lost in the disheartening news about the depressing number of firms going bust and workers losing their jobs is the other side of the ledger: new and existing firms are adding millions of new jobs. I estimate about three for every ten jobs …

2Q20 US GDP – A Recession Like No Other

The preliminary estimate of second-quarter headline GDP released today was ugly if not unexpected: the 9.5% plunge over the prior quarter translates to a 32.9% annualized decline, more than three times the greatest prior quarterly fall since the government started tracking GDP in 1947. The modicum of good news is that economic output apparently bottomed …

Initial vs. Continuing Unemployment Claims: A Distinction with the Very Big Difference

The employment news is bad enough without reporters and pundits exaggerating the grim trends. Almost 39 million initial claims for unemployment have been filed since mid-March when the COVID-19 pandemic really started taking hold of the economy. It is probably fair to conclude that “Nearly 39 million have lost jobs in US since virus took …

The Coronavirus, the End of the Cycle, and U.S. Commercial Property Markets: Early Thoughts

The coronavirus has seized the global economy. With the number of confirmed cases globally and in the U.S. growing by about one-third per day – that is, doubling every three days – a broad range of economic activity is rapidly shutting down, either by fiat or collapsing consumer demand, dramatically compounding the supply chain disruption …