Recent positive economic headlines are easily misinterpreted. The record growth we’ve enjoyed follows even greater downturns and leaves us well short of prior levels on most key measures. With the recovery slowing across the board, a full rebound is not yet in sight.
The latest government reports have brought a spate of upbeat U.S. economic headlines. Last month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said that real GDP grew 7.4% in the third quarter, doubling the prior quarterly record growth and reversing most of the pandemic’s initial plunge in output. Then the Census Bureau reported that retailers posted their fourth straight month of record sales in October, and sales now exceed their prior peak logged in January.
More recently, the BEA said that consumer spending (which includes retail sales as well as other items like housing and health care) rose again in October for the sixth consecutive month. Meanwhile, And then just this past week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) noted that employers recorded their seventh straight month of strong job gains.
So, plenty of welcome economic data, and certainly better news than this spring. But while technically accurate, the headlines provide a misleading narrative about the economy’s strength and near-term outlook.
This article was originally published on Medium, but you can also download the article here.
Posted: by Andrew J. Nelson
